TL;DR: Russia extends its diesel export ban to Oct 31, tightening supply and pushing domestic diesel prices sharply higher.
The Details
- Ban now covers all fuel producers; original expiry was Sept 30. Extension aims to rebuild reserves before winter amid delayed refinery maintenance.
- Six largest diesel refineries supply ~50% of output; three are offline or operating at ~25% after Ukrainian drone strikes.
- Domestic diesel price hit 88.44 RUB/L, up 18.4% YTD. Spot price on St. Petersburg exchange at 70,546 RUB/ton.
- Exports fell below 1 Mt in June versus 2.5 Mt a year earlier. Turkey and Brazil lost half their allocations.
- U.S. diesel prices hit record $6.27/gal, sparking political talk of a U.S. export ban.
Watch For
- Russian Energy Ministry’s “adjustment” trigger – when reserves stabilize, the ban could be lifted.
- Further drone attacks on remaining refineries, which would deepen supply constraints.
- Global diesel price reaction and potential policy responses in importing regions (e.g., EU, Turkey).
Analyzed by FNXT Experts